At-Large Odds
[BX-ATLARGE-ROLE] The 33 at-large bids go to the best teams that didn't win their conference tournament. This page ranks every contender by its chance of making the field — who's safely in, who's on the bubble, and who's just outside.
Bracketology·Conference Races·At-Large Odds·NCAA Bracket— bubble teams and their tournament probabilities.
[BX-PRESEASON-BANNER] Preseason projection: no 2026results yet, so every game is simulated from carried-over Elo ratings. Schedules are still being published — roughly three-quarters of the season's games are loaded so far, so some matchups aren't in the simulation yet. Odds will sharpen as schedules finalize and results come in.
64
Field Size
31
Auto-Bid Slots
0
Auto-Bids Locked
33
At-Large Slots
[BX-ATLARGE-FRESH] Elo as of 8/1/2026. One joint 1,000-trial season simulation: every remaining game, each conference tournament, and end-of-season RPI are simulated together, so these probabilities are mutually consistent.
[BX-ATLARGE-COL-LEGEND] Proj RPI — projected end-of-season RPI rank, ordering teams by their average simulated finish (shown in parentheses). P(Auto) — win the conference's automatic bid. P(At-Large) — earn an at-large berth given no auto bid. P(Tournament) — make the 64-team field by either path.
[BX-ASOF] As of preseason
showing 348 of 348 teams
[BX-LADDER-LEGEND] Status by Chance to Qualify:Clinchedauto-bid wonIn≥95%Likely In75–95%Contender60–75%Bubble35–60%Longshot5–35%Out<5%
| Actual | Projected | Probability | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | RPI | W-L | RPI | Conference Champion | At-Large | Chance to Qualify | Status |
| 1 |  Nebraska | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 25.7-2.3 | 4(6.4) | 51% | 100% | 100% | In |
Elo 2384 (+3) → 2387 projected end of season Projected RPI Projected RPI: 0.6616 Median finish: #5 Typical range: #3–8 (middle 50% of sims) Finish distribution #1#80+ [BX-HIST-SUMMARY] 100% of sims finish inside the top 64 by RPI · 0% outside · mean finish #6.4 · median #5 Path to the bracket P(Tournament) 100% auto bid 51% at-large path 50% [BX-PATH-VERDICT] Both paths are live — the conference tournament or an at-large bid. | ||||||||||
| 2 |  Pitt | ACC | 0-0 | — | 26.6-4.4 | 5(7.6) | 38% | 100% | 100% | In |
| 3 |  Kentucky | SEC | 0-0 | — | 22.4-3.6 | 1(5.2) | 41% | 100% | 100% | In |
| 4 |  Creighton | Big East | 0-0 | — | 25.3-4.7 | 3(6.1) | 76% | 99% | 100% | In |
| 5 |  Texas A&M | SEC | 0-0 | — | 23.2-4.8 | 2(5.9) | 32% | 99% | 100% | In |
| 6 |  Texas | SEC | 0-0 | — | 18.3-5.7 | 8(10.8) | 21% | 99% | 99% | In |
| 7 |  Stanford | ACC | 0-0 | — | 24.2-5.8 | 9(12.2) | 24% | 99% | 99% | In |
| 8 |  Arizona St. | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 25.8-6.2 | 6(8.6) | 63% | 97% | 99% | In |
| 9 |  Wisconsin | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 22.1-5.9 | 7(10.7) | 24% | 98% | 98% | In |
| 10 |  Louisville | ACC | 0-0 | — | 23.5-8.5 | 10(13.3) | 18% | 97% | 98% | In |
| 11 |  SMU | ACC | 0-0 | — | 21.2-7.8 | 11(16.5) | 10% | 95% | 95% | In |
| 12 |  UNI | Missouri Valley | 0-0 | — | 23.9-5.1 | 14(23.6) | 70% | 85% | 95% | In |
| 13 |  Western KY | Conference USA | 0-0 | — | 23.9-5.1 | 12(22.0) | 60% | 85% | 94% | Likely In |
| 14 |  Purdue | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 20.8-6.2 | 15(23.8) | 7% | 91% | 91% | Likely In |
| 15 |  Kansas | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 20.8-10.2 | 13(23.5) | 17% | 87% | 89% | Likely In |
| 16 |  Southern California | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 20.3-8.7 | 16(24.3) | 6% | 87% | 88% | Likely In |
| 17 |  Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 0-0 | — | 25.5-7.5 | 21(35.3) | 63% | 64% | 87% | Likely In |
| 18 |  Utah State | Pac-12 | 0-0 | — | 18.6-5.4 | 20(31.5) | 46% | 73% | 85% | Likely In |
| 19 |  Miami (FL) | ACC | 0-0 | — | 32.3-8.7 | 18(30.3) | 7% | 83% | 85% | Likely In |
| 20 |  Penn St. | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 18.7-8.3 | 17(27.2) | 5% | 83% | 84% | Likely In |
| 21 |  Minnesota | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 17.5-10.5 | 19(31.2) | 3% | 80% | 80% | Likely In |
| 22 |  San Diego | WCC | 0-0 | — | 22.2-5.8 | 24(42.3) | 64% | 37% | 77% | Likely In |
| 23 |  Cal Poly | Big West | 0-0 | — | 21.5-6.5 | 25(42.9) | 48% | 55% | 77% | Likely In |
| 24 |  Tennessee | SEC | 0-0 | — | 17.8-9.2 | 22(37.5) | 2% | 72% | 72% | Contender |
| 25 |  Marquette | Big East | 0-0 | — | 19.3-8.7 | 23(40.1) | 14% | 67% | 71% | Contender |
| 26 |  Indiana | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 16.7-10.3 | 26(44.3) | 2% | 63% | 64% | Contender |
| 27 |  Baylor | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 18.7-11.3 | 27(46.7) | 4% | 61% | 63% | Contender |
| 28 |  High Point | Big South | 0-0 | — | 19.0-10.0 | 54(71.6) | 51% | 23% | 63% | Contender |
| 29 |  Fairfield | MAAC | 0-0 | — | 24.1-6.0 | 85(98.7) | 61% | 2% | 62% | Contender |
| 30 |  South Dakota St. | Summit League | 0-0 | — | 19.2-7.8 | 41(60.2) | 47% | 27% | 61% | Contender |
| 31 |  James Madison | Sun Belt | 0-0 | — | 19.7-8.3 | 29(48.3) | 23% | 48% | 60% | Contender |
| 32 |  American | Patriot | 0-0 | — | 19.0-7.0 | 48(67.2) | 44% | 28% | 60% | Bubble |
| 33 |  BYU | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 17.4-10.6 | 30(48.6) | 4% | 58% | 59% | Bubble |
| 34 |  Arkansas St | Sun Belt | 0-0 | — | 20.1-8.9 | 34(52.0) | 34% | 39% | 59% | Bubble |
| 35 |  UCLA | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 16.5-12.5 | 28(47.9) | 1% | 59% | 59% | Bubble |
| 36 |  UTEP | Mountain West | 0-0 | — | 24.8-7.2 | 46(64.6) | 46% | 23% | 59% | Bubble |
| 37 |  Pepperdine | WCC | 0-0 | — | 21.6-9.4 | 32(51.0) | 30% | 40% | 58% | Bubble |
| 38 |  North Carolina | ACC | 0-0 | — | 18.6-10.4 | 31(49.0) | 1% | 56% | 56% | Bubble |
| 39 |  Rice | American Athletic | 0-0 | — | 18.4-9.6 | 37(58.1) | 30% | 37% | 56% | Bubble |
| 40 |  Florida | SEC | 0-0 | — | 15.2-9.8 | 33(51.0) | 1% | 53% | 54% | Bubble |
| 41 |  SF Austin | Southland | 0-0 | — | 23.1-5.9 | 51(70.5) | 43% | 19% | 54% | Bubble |
| 42 |  Villanova | Big East | 0-0 | — | 15.1-11.9 | 36(53.1) | 3% | 51% | 53% | Bubble |
| 43 |  Ball State | MAC | 0-0 | — | 17.8-9.2 | 53(70.8) | 38% | 23% | 52% | Bubble |
| 44 |  Xavier | Big East | 0-0 | — | 20.1-7.9 | 35(52.5) | 6% | 48% | 51% | Bubble |
| 45 |  LIU | NEC | 0-0 | — | 13.9-7.1 | 205(199.5) | 51% | 0% | 51% | Bubble |
| 46 |  Princeton | Ivy League | 0-0 | — | 15.4-5.6 | 61(79.7) | 40% | 18% | 50% | Bubble |
| 47 |  FGCU | ASUN | 0-0 | — | 15.3-8.7 | 72(88.8) | 43% | 12% | 50% | Bubble |
| 48 |  Coppin St. | MEAC | 0-0 | — | 22.0-9.0 | 151(155.5) | 48% | 0% | 48% | Bubble |
| 49 |  ETSU | Southern | 0-0 | — | 22.2-8.8 | 63(82.8) | 38% | 17% | 48% | Bubble |
| 50 |  TCU | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 16.1-14.9 | 39(58.8) | 2% | 45% | 46% | Bubble |
| 51 |  Arizona | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 17.1-12.9 | 42(60.5) | 2% | 45% | 46% | Bubble |
| 52 |  Georgia Tech | ACC | 0-0 | — | 18.3-14.7 | 38(58.6) | 0% | 44% | 44% | Bubble |
| 53 |  Eastern Ky. | United Athletic | 0-0 | — | 20.1-9.9 | 74(89.0) | 37% | 11% | 44% | Bubble |
| 54 |  Iowa State | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 18.1-11.9 | 45(64.0) | 3% | 42% | 43% | Bubble |
| 55 |  Tulsa | American Athletic | 0-0 | — | 19.1-9.9 | 50(70.2) | 26% | 23% | 43% | Bubble |
| 56 |  Yale | Ivy League | 0-0 | — | 15.1-6.9 | 66(84.4) | 33% | 14% | 43% | Bubble |
| 57 |  Texas St. | Pac-12 | 0-0 | — | 20.1-8.9 | 49(69.3) | 17% | 31% | 43% | Bubble |
| 58 |  Michigan | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 18.2-11.8 | 40(59.9) | 1% | 42% | 42% | Bubble |
| 59 |  Kansas St | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 18.5-9.5 | 43(62.3) | 3% | 41% | 42% | Bubble |
| 60 |  Wright St. | Horizon | 0-0 | — | 17.8-11.2 | 78(94.8) | 37% | 8% | 42% | Bubble |
| 61 |  Hofstra | CAA | 0-0 | — | 17.2-6.8 | 64(83.0) | 31% | 16% | 42% | Bubble |
| 62 |  UC Davis | Mountain West | 0-0 | — | 19.0-11.0 | 59(76.9) | 27% | 19% | 41% | Bubble |
| 63 |  Central Ark. | United Athletic | 0-0 | — | 19.8-8.2 | 97(111.7) | 37% | 5% | 40% | Bubble |
| 64 |  Missouri | SEC | 0-0 | — | 14.9-12.1 | 47(65.0) | 1% | 40% | 40% | Bubble |
── at-large cut line (64) ── | ||||||||||
| 65 |  UMBC | America East | 0-0 | — | 13.3-7.7 | 87(100.4) | 32% | 12% | 40% | Bubble |
| 66 |  Colorado St | Pac-12 | 0-0 | — | 17.4-11.6 | 55(73.0) | 18% | 27% | 40% | Bubble |
| 67 |  Eastern Ill. | Ohio Valley | 0-0 | — | 18.7-11.3 | 112(125.9) | 39% | 1% | 39% | Bubble |
| 68 |  Oregon | Big Ten | 0-0 | — | 15.5-12.5 | 44(62.4) | 0% | 39% | 39% | Bubble |
| 69 |  Colorado | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 16.2-11.8 | 52(70.5) | 2% | 35% | 37% | Bubble |
| 70 |  FDU | NEC | 0-0 | — | 21.5-11.5 | 220(205.1) | 34% | 0% | 34% | Longshot |
| 71 |  Colgate | Patriot | 0-0 | — | 18.9-11.1 | 70(88.2) | 23% | 14% | 34% | Longshot |
| 72 |  UC Santa Barbara | Big West | 0-0 | — | 20.3-10.7 | 60(78.5) | 19% | 18% | 34% | Longshot |
| 73 |  Winthrop | Big South | 0-0 | — | 17.5-7.5 | 115(127.8) | 31% | 2% | 33% | Longshot |
| 74 |  South Dakota | Summit League | 0-0 | — | 16.4-9.6 | 75(92.3) | 22% | 13% | 32% | Longshot |
| 75 |  Howard | MEAC | 0-0 | — | 16.4-10.6 | 171(174.2) | 32% | 0% | 32% | Longshot |
| 76 |  N Colorado | Big Sky | 0-0 | — | 20.9-9.1 | 107(122.7) | 30% | 3% | 32% | Longshot |
| 77 |  Drake | Missouri Valley | 0-0 | — | 19.4-8.6 | 62(81.0) | 15% | 19% | 31% | Longshot |
| 78 |  Northern Ky. | Horizon | 0-0 | — | 18.9-10.1 | 101(117.8) | 28% | 4% | 31% | Longshot |
| 79 |  Utah | Big 12 | 0-0 | — | 16.2-14.8 | 58(76.6) | 1% | 30% | 31% | Longshot |
| 80 |  Wichita St. | American Athletic | 0-0 | — | 16.9-13.1 | 65(83.7) | 13% | 20% | 30% | Longshot |
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