Bracketology

[BX-PREDICT-INTRO] The NCAA Volleyball tournament fields 64 teams. The clearest path in is winning your conference tournament for an automatic bid. Every other slot is an at-large berth, decided by end-of-season RPI. This page projects both paths from one season-long simulation.

Snapshot Week

Preseason
As of Preseason
[BX-PRESEASON-BANNER] Preseason projection: no 2026results yet, so every game is simulated from carried-over Elo ratings. Schedules are still being published — roughly three-quarters of the season's games are loaded so far, so some matchups aren't in the simulation yet. Odds will sharpen as schedules finalize and results come in.
0
Auto Bids Locked
conferences with a champion decided
31
Auto Bids Remaining
races still to be won
33
At-Large Bids
best non-champions by RPI
Conference tournaments

[BX-CONF-TOURN-ROLE] Win your conference tournament and you're in — this is where the 31 automatic bids are decided. Each card shows a conference's projected auto-bid leader and how settled the race is.

[BX-CONF-STATUS-LEGEND] Sorted by how settled each race is. Locked = champion decided; Heavy favorite = leader 85%+ to win the auto bid; Favorite = 60–85%; Toss-up = still up for grabs.

Big EastFavorite
Creighton · 78%
Big 12Favorite
Arizona St. · 71%
WCCFavorite
San Diego · 70%
Missouri ValleyFavorite
UNI · 70%
MAACFavorite
Fairfield · 66%
Conference USAFavorite
Western KY · 66%
Atlantic 10Favorite
Dayton · 63%
Big SouthToss-up
High Point · 55%
Big TenToss-up
Nebraska · 53%
NECToss-up
LIU · 53%
Big WestToss-up
Cal Poly · 51%
Pac-12Toss-up
Utah State · 51%
WACToss-up
Central Ark. · 50%
Summit LeagueToss-up
South Dakota St. · 49%
ASUNToss-up
FGCU · 47%
Mountain WestToss-up
UTEP · 46%
MEACToss-up
Coppin St. · 46%
PatriotToss-up
American · 46%
ACCToss-up
Pitt · 46%
Ivy LeagueToss-up
Princeton · 43%
SECToss-up
Kentucky · 43%
SouthlandToss-up
SF Austin · 41%
United AthleticToss-up
Central Ark. · 40%
HorizonToss-up
Wright St. · 40%
SouthernToss-up
ETSU · 40%
MACToss-up
Ball State · 38%
Ohio ValleyToss-up
Eastern Ill. · 37%
America EastToss-up
UMBC · 34%
CAAToss-up
Hofstra · 34%
American AthleticToss-up
Rice · 31%
SWACToss-up
Prairie View · 31%
Big SkyToss-up
N Colorado · 30%
Sun BeltToss-up
Arkansas St · 29%
Hottest races

[BX-HOTTEST-RACES] Ranked by the smallest gap between a conference's projected leader and runner-up — the closest, most uncertain auto-bid races. Runaway leaders (already 85%+ to win their tournament) are left out.

American Athletic
Rice31%
Tulsa28%
Sun Belt
Arkansas St29%
James Madison26%
United Athletic
Central Ark.40%
Eastern Ky.36%
Power-conference races
Big Ten
Nebraska53%
Wisconsin24%
SEC
Kentucky43%
Texas A&M29%
ACC
Pitt46%
Stanford23%
Big 12
Arizona St.71%
Kansas15%
Big East
Creighton78%
Marquette12%
Pac-12
Utah State51%
Colorado St16%
At-large picture

[BX-ATLARGE-SUMMARY] The 33 at-large bids go to the best teams that didn't win their conference. Full odds for every bubble team live on the At-Large Odds page; the complete projected field, including auto-bid teams, is below in Projected field.

[BX-CUTLINE] Projected at-large cut line: about a top-45 RPI. That's the overall RPI rank of the last team to earn an at-large bid (middle-50% range #44–#47, RPI value ≈ 0.5838). It lands near #45 rather than #64 because most of the 31 conference champions rank well outside the top 64 — they take field spots without raising the at-large bar. Only about nine elite-conference champions sit above the line, so roughly 33 at-large teams plus those ~9 champions ≈ #45. In short: a team without an auto bid needs about a top-45 RPI to make the field.
Last 4 In
Xavier · Big EastpRPI 0.5821 · 51%
LIU · NECpRPI 0.4842 · 51%
Princeton · Ivy LeaguepRPI 0.5599 · 50%
FGCU · ASUNpRPI 0.5535 · 50%
First 4 Out
Coppin St. · MEACpRPI 0.5102 · 48%
ETSU · SouthernpRPI 0.5583 · 48%
TCU · Big 12pRPI 0.5795 · 46%
Arizona · Big 12pRPI 0.5771 · 46%
Projected top 16
by projected RPI (preseason sim)

[BX-TOP16-HOSTING] The 16 national seeds host the first and second rounds on their home court — a real advantage. Seeding follows current RPI, so this is the top 16 by RPI right now.

1Kentucky2Texas A&M3Creighton4Nebraska5Pittsburgh6Arizona St.7Wisconsin8Texas9Stanford10Louisville11SMU12Western Ky.13Kansas14UNI15Purdue16Southern Californianext four17Penn St.18Miami (FL)19Minnesota20Utah St.
Projected field
by P(tournament)

[BX-PROJFIELD-DESC] The complete projected field, auto-bid and at-large teams together, ranked by P(Tournament) from the unified 1,000-trial season simulation. Expand any row for the detail behind its odds.

[BX-ASOF] As of preseason
[BX-LADDER-LEGEND] Status by Chance to Qualify:Clinchedauto-bid wonIn≥95%Likely In75–95%Contender60–75%Bubble35–60%Longshot5–35%Out<5%
ActualProjectedProbability
#TeamConfW-LRPIW-LRPIConference ChampionAt-LargeChance to QualifyStatus
1NebraskaBig Ten0-0—25.7-2.3
4(6.4)
51%
100%
100%
In
Elo
2384 (+3)
→ 2387 projected end of season
Projected RPI
Projected RPI: 0.6616
Median finish: #5
Typical range: #3–8 (middle 50% of sims)
Finish distribution
cut (top 64)
#1#80+
[BX-HIST-SUMMARY] 100% of sims finish inside the top 64 by RPI · 0% outside · mean finish #6.4 · median #5
Path to the bracket
P(Tournament) 100%
auto bid 51%
at-large path 50%
[BX-PATH-VERDICT] Both paths are live — the conference tournament or an at-large bid.
2PittACC0-0—26.6-4.4
5(7.6)
38%
100%
100%
In
3KentuckySEC0-0—22.4-3.6
1(5.2)
41%
100%
100%
In
4CreightonBig East0-0—25.3-4.7
3(6.1)
76%
99%
100%
In
5Texas A&MSEC0-0—23.2-4.8
2(5.9)
32%
99%
100%
In
6TexasSEC0-0—18.3-5.7
8(10.8)
21%
99%
99%
In
7StanfordACC0-0—24.2-5.8
9(12.2)
24%
99%
99%
In
8Arizona St.Big 120-0—25.8-6.2
6(8.6)
63%
97%
99%
In
9WisconsinBig Ten0-0—22.1-5.9
7(10.7)
24%
98%
98%
In
10LouisvilleACC0-0—23.5-8.5
10(13.3)
18%
97%
98%
In
11SMUACC0-0—21.2-7.8
11(16.5)
10%
95%
95%
In
12UNIMissouri Valley0-0—23.9-5.1
14(23.6)
70%
85%
95%
In
13Western KYConference USA0-0—23.9-5.1
12(22.0)
60%
85%
94%
Likely In
14PurdueBig Ten0-0—20.8-6.2
15(23.8)
7%
91%
91%
Likely In
15KansasBig 120-0—20.8-10.2
13(23.5)
17%
87%
89%
Likely In
16Southern CaliforniaBig Ten0-0—20.3-8.7
16(24.3)
6%
87%
88%
Likely In
17DaytonAtlantic 100-0—25.5-7.5
21(35.3)
63%
64%
87%
Likely In
18Utah StatePac-120-0—18.6-5.4
20(31.5)
46%
73%
85%
Likely In
19Miami (FL)ACC0-0—32.3-8.7
18(30.3)
7%
83%
85%
Likely In
20Penn St.Big Ten0-0—18.7-8.3
17(27.2)
5%
83%
84%
Likely In
21MinnesotaBig Ten0-0—17.5-10.5
19(31.2)
3%
80%
80%
Likely In
22San DiegoWCC0-0—22.2-5.8
24(42.3)
64%
37%
77%
Likely In
23Cal PolyBig West0-0—21.5-6.5
25(42.9)
48%
55%
77%
Likely In
24TennesseeSEC0-0—17.8-9.2
22(37.5)
2%
72%
72%
Contender
25MarquetteBig East0-0—19.3-8.7
23(40.1)
14%
67%
71%
Contender
26IndianaBig Ten0-0—16.7-10.3
26(44.3)
2%
63%
64%
Contender
27BaylorBig 120-0—18.7-11.3
27(46.7)
4%
61%
63%
Contender
28High PointBig South0-0—19.0-10.0
54(71.6)
51%
23%
63%
Contender
29FairfieldMAAC0-0—24.1-6.0
85(98.7)
61%
2%
62%
Contender
30South Dakota St.Summit League0-0—19.2-7.8
41(60.2)
47%
27%
61%
Contender
31James MadisonSun Belt0-0—19.7-8.3
29(48.3)
23%
48%
60%
Contender
32AmericanPatriot0-0—19.0-7.0
48(67.2)
44%
28%
60%
Bubble
33BYUBig 120-0—17.4-10.6
30(48.6)
4%
58%
59%
Bubble
34Arkansas StSun Belt0-0—20.1-8.9
34(52.0)
34%
39%
59%
Bubble
35UCLABig Ten0-0—16.5-12.5
28(47.9)
1%
59%
59%
Bubble
36UTEPMountain West0-0—24.8-7.2
46(64.6)
46%
23%
59%
Bubble
37PepperdineWCC0-0—21.6-9.4
32(51.0)
30%
40%
58%
Bubble
38North CarolinaACC0-0—18.6-10.4
31(49.0)
1%
56%
56%
Bubble
39RiceAmerican Athletic0-0—18.4-9.6
37(58.1)
30%
37%
56%
Bubble
40FloridaSEC0-0—15.2-9.8
33(51.0)
1%
53%
54%
Bubble
41SF AustinSouthland0-0—23.1-5.9
51(70.5)
43%
19%
54%
Bubble
42VillanovaBig East0-0—15.1-11.9
36(53.1)
3%
51%
53%
Bubble
43Ball StateMAC0-0—17.8-9.2
53(70.8)
38%
23%
52%
Bubble
44XavierBig East0-0—20.1-7.9
35(52.5)
6%
48%
51%
Bubble
45LIUNEC0-0—13.9-7.1
205(199.5)
51%
0%
51%
Bubble
46PrincetonIvy League0-0—15.4-5.6
61(79.7)
40%
18%
50%
Bubble
47FGCUASUN0-0—15.3-8.7
72(88.8)
43%
12%
50%
Bubble
48Coppin St.MEAC0-0—22.0-9.0
151(155.5)
48%
0%
48%
Bubble
49ETSUSouthern0-0—22.2-8.8
63(82.8)
38%
17%
48%
Bubble
50TCUBig 120-0—16.1-14.9
39(58.8)
2%
45%
46%
Bubble
51ArizonaBig 120-0—17.1-12.9
42(60.5)
2%
45%
46%
Bubble
52Georgia TechACC0-0—18.3-14.7
38(58.6)
0%
44%
44%
Bubble
53Eastern Ky.United Athletic0-0—20.1-9.9
74(89.0)
37%
11%
44%
Bubble
54Iowa StateBig 120-0—18.1-11.9
45(64.0)
3%
42%
43%
Bubble
55TulsaAmerican Athletic0-0—19.1-9.9
50(70.2)
26%
23%
43%
Bubble
56YaleIvy League0-0—15.1-6.9
66(84.4)
33%
14%
43%
Bubble
57Texas St.Pac-120-0—20.1-8.9
49(69.3)
17%
31%
43%
Bubble
58MichiganBig Ten0-0—18.2-11.8
40(59.9)
1%
42%
42%
Bubble
59Kansas StBig 120-0—18.5-9.5
43(62.3)
3%
41%
42%
Bubble
60Wright St.Horizon0-0—17.8-11.2
78(94.8)
37%
8%
42%
Bubble
61HofstraCAA0-0—17.2-6.8
64(83.0)
31%
16%
42%
Bubble
62UC DavisMountain West0-0—19.0-11.0
59(76.9)
27%
19%
41%
Bubble
63Central Ark.United Athletic0-0—19.8-8.2
97(111.7)
37%
5%
40%
Bubble
64MissouriSEC0-0—14.9-12.1
47(65.0)
1%
40%
40%
Bubble
── at-large cut line (64) ──
65UMBCAmerica East0-0—13.3-7.7
87(100.4)
32%
12%
40%
Bubble
66Colorado StPac-120-0—17.4-11.6
55(73.0)
18%
27%
40%
Bubble
67Eastern Ill.Ohio Valley0-0—18.7-11.3
112(125.9)
39%
1%
39%
Bubble
68OregonBig Ten0-0—15.5-12.5
44(62.4)
0%
39%
39%
Bubble
69ColoradoBig 120-0—16.2-11.8
52(70.5)
2%
35%
37%
Bubble
70FDUNEC0-0—21.5-11.5
220(205.1)
34%
0%
34%
Longshot
71ColgatePatriot0-0—18.9-11.1
70(88.2)
23%
14%
34%
Longshot
72UC Santa BarbaraBig West0-0—20.3-10.7
60(78.5)
19%
18%
34%
Longshot
73WinthropBig South0-0—17.5-7.5
115(127.8)
31%
2%
33%
Longshot
74South DakotaSummit League0-0—16.4-9.6
75(92.3)
22%
13%
32%
Longshot
75HowardMEAC0-0—16.4-10.6
171(174.2)
32%
0%
32%
Longshot
76N ColoradoBig Sky0-0—20.9-9.1
107(122.7)
30%
3%
32%
Longshot
77DrakeMissouri Valley0-0—19.4-8.6
62(81.0)
15%
19%
31%
Longshot
78Northern Ky.Horizon0-0—18.9-10.1
101(117.8)
28%
4%
31%
Longshot
79UtahBig 120-0—16.2-14.8
58(76.6)
1%
30%
31%
Longshot
80Wichita St.American Athletic0-0—16.9-13.1
65(83.7)
13%
20%
30%
Longshot
[BX-SWIPE-HINT] swipe for more →

How the 2026 NCAA volleyball tournament field is picked

The NCAA Division I women's volleyball tournament fields 64 teams. Each of the 31 conference tournament champions earns an automatic bid — regardless of their regular-season record. The NCAA selection committee then awards the remaining 33at-large bids to the best teams that didn't win their conference.

The committee evaluates at-large candidates using RPI, strength of schedule, quality wins against top-50 RPI opponents, conference record, and head-to-head results. There is no single cutoff — a team just outside the projected field can earn a bid with a strong finish, and a team inside it can fall out with poor late-season results.

The 64 selected teams are seeded 1 through 16 within four regional brackets. The top seeds host first- and second-round matches on campus before the field advances to four regional sites and the national championship.

[BX-EXPLAINER-METHOD] The probabilities on this page come from one joint season simulation: it plays out every remaining game, each conference tournament, and end-of-season RPI together, then counts how often each team makes the field by either path — so the auto-bid and at-large odds are mutually consistent. Locked auto-bids show once a conference champion is officially determined. Full tournament guide →