Bracketology

[BX-PREDICT-INTRO] The NCAA Football tournament fields 64 teams. The clearest path in is winning your conference tournament for an automatic bid. Every other slot is an at-large berth, decided by end-of-season RPI. This page projects both paths from one season-long simulation.

Snapshot Week

[BX-WEEK-SELECTOR-EMPTY] No snapshots yet this season

Auto Bids Locked

conferences with a champion decided

Auto Bids Remaining

races still to be won

At-Large Bids

best non-champions by RPI

Conference tournaments

[BX-CONF-TOURN-ROLE] Win your conference tournament and you're in — this is where the 31 automatic bids are decided. Each card shows a conference's projected auto-bid leader and how settled the race is.

[BX-CONF-STATUS-LEGEND] Sorted by how settled each race is. Locked = champion decided; Heavy favorite = leader 85%+ to win the auto bid; Favorite = 60–85%; Toss-up = still up for grabs.

Mountain WestToss-up

N Dakota St · 58%

Sun BeltToss-up

James Madison · 54%

MEACToss-up

South Carolina St. · 51%

Big SkyToss-up

Montana St. · 47%

PatriotToss-up

Villanova · 44%

MACToss-up

Ohio · 43%

SWACToss-up

Alabama St. · 35%

SouthlandToss-up

SF Austin · 35%

United AthleticToss-up

W Florida · 33%

Ivy LeagueToss-up

Yale · 32%

SouthernToss-up

Tennessee Tech · 30%

Big TenToss-up

Ohio St. · 29%

MvfcToss-up

South Dakota · 29%

American AthleticToss-up

Navy · 28%

CAAToss-up

Rhode Island · 26%

Big South OvcToss-up

UT Martin · 26%

Pac-12Toss-up

Boise St · 26%

SECToss-up

Georgia · 25%

Conference USAToss-up

Jacksonville St. · 25%

PioneerToss-up

Drake · 25%

NECToss-up

Duquesne · 23%

Big 12Toss-up

BYU · 20%

ACCToss-up

SMU · 17%

Hottest races

[BX-HOTTEST-RACES] Ranked by the smallest gap between a conference's projected leader and runner-up — the closest, most uncertain auto-bid races. Runaway leaders (already 85%+ to win their tournament) are left out.

At-large picture

[BX-ATLARGE-SUMMARY] The 33 at-large bids go to the best teams that didn't win their conference. Full odds for every bubble team live on the At-Large Odds page; the complete projected field, including auto-bid teams, is below in Projected field.

Last 4 In

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First 4 Out

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Projected top 16

by projected RPI (preseason sim)

[BX-TOP16-HOSTING] The 16 national seeds host the first and second rounds on their home court — a real advantage. Seeding follows current RPI, so this is the top 16 by RPI right now.

No RPI data available for this season yet.

Projected field

by P(tournament)

Tournament projections unavailable.The season simulation hasn't been generated for this season yet. If you're running locally, create it with npx tsx scripts/_write-local-tournament-odds.ts 2026.